New orders for key US-manufactured capital goods rose moderately in March and data for the prior month was revised lower, suggesting business spending on equipment was likely sluggish in the first quarter.

Non-defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, increased 0.2 per cent last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Wednesday (Apr 24). Data for February was revised lower to show these so-called core capital goods orders rising 0.4 per cent instead of 0.7 per cent as previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders gaining 0.2 per cent.

Business spending on equipment has struggled in the aftermath of 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve since March 2022 to tame inflation. Though the US central bank is expected to start lowering rates this year, the timing of the first cut is uncertain as inflation remains elevated amid a resilient economy.

Core capital goods shipments rebounded 0.2 per cent after falling 0.6 per cent in February. Non-defence capital goods orders surged 5.4 per cent, but shipments of these goods slumped 1.5 per cent after increasing 2.4 per cent in February.

Shipments of these goods go into the calculation of the business spending on equipment component in the gross domestic product report. The government is scheduled to publish its advance estimate of first-quarter GDP on Thursday (Apr 25).

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Economists polled by Reuters estimated that GDP increased at a 2.4 per cent annualised rate last quarter. The economy grew at a 3.4 per cent pace in the October-December quarter. Business spending on equipment is forecast to have posted a mild gain after contracting for two straight quarters.

But manufacturing, which accounts for 10.4 per cent of the economy is on the rebound. Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, surged 2.6 per cent in March after downwardly revised 0.7 per cent advance in February.

Durable goods orders were previously reported to have risen 1.3 per cent in February.

An Institute for Supply Management survey this month showed manufacturing grew for the first time in 1-1/2 years in March. REUTERS