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Forecasters expect 2.7% Singapore GDP growth in 2015: MAS survey

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While Singapore's economic forecasters have kept their 2015 growth projections more-or-less the same - they expect GDP to grow 2.7 per cent this year, compared to 2.8 per cent a quarter ago - their take on various sectors has shifted.

WHILE Singapore's economic forecasters have kept their 2015 growth projections more-or-less the same - they expect GDP to grow 2.7 per cent this year, compared to 2.8 per cent a quarter ago - their take on various sectors has shifted. The manufacturing sector, in particular, is expected to grow at a slower pace than earlier forecast.

This is according to findings from the latest quarterly survey conducted by Singapore's central bank, released on Wednesday.

The 23 private-sector economists and analysts who responded to the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) survey in May have moderated their expectations for manufacturing and finance & insurance growth, but raised their forecasts for the construction and wholesale & retail trade sectors.

The median forecast for manufacturing growth is now a weaker 0.5 per cent, compared to 1.8 per cent a quarter ago. Finance & insurance is expected to grow at 7 per cent, down from a median forecast of 7.5 per cent in March.

But economists are more optimistic about construction and wholesale & retail trade; both sectors are now expected to expand 3.3 per cent this year, up from 2 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively in the previous survey.

As for consumer prices, the forecasters' projections for 2015 remained stable. Core inflation is still expected at one per cent, while headline inflation is expected at 0 per cent, compared to an earlier estimate of 0.1 per cent.

Both private-sector growth and inflation projections fall within the government's forecasts. According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), the Singapore economy should expand between 2 and 4 per cent in 2015. Headline and core inflation are projected to average -0.5 to 0.5 per cent and 0.5 to 1.5 per cent respectively.

More on the Singapore economy:

Key macroeconomic indicators (yoy% change) - 2015 forecastsMarch surveyJune survey
GDP2.82.7
-- Manufacturing1.80.5
-- Finance & insurance7.57.0
-- Construction2.03.3
-- Wholesale & retail trade2.23.3
-- Accommodation & food services2.31.0
Private consumption2.22.6
Non-oil domestic exports1.62.6
CPI-all items (Inflation rate)0.10.0
MAS core inflation1.01.0
Unemployment rate (end-period, seasonally adjusted %)2.02.0
Exchange rate (end-period, S$/US$)1.4001.380
3-month S$ SIBOR (end-period, % per annum)1.151.25
Bank loans (end-period, % growth)5.55.3