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GE2015: PAP lifts estimated vote share to 69.7%, sample count suggests

[SINGAPORE] The People's Action Party (PAP) appears to have reclaimed a significant swathe of the ground it lost before, upping its estimated vote share by 9.6 percentage points to 69.7 per cent in the 2015 general election, according to sample count results from the Elections Department (ELD).

In contrast, the ruling party's biggest rival, the Workers' Party (WP), could have lost one of its 7 seats in Parliament to the PAP - for Punggol East single member constituency (SMC) - although the contest there is too close to call with certainty.

All told, the 89 seats in Parliament appear to be carved out with 83 for PAP, and 6 for WP.

These figures are only an early indication of the possible final results, which will be announced later. Still, the sample count results are said to be fairly indicative of the possible outcome for a constituency; sample counts typically have a confidence level of 95 per cent, plus or minus four percentage points.

Most of the constituencies' margins are well above this four percentage point range, delivering decisive victories for the PAP. This includes East Coast group representation constituency (GRC) - an area eyed by WP - which saw PAP take 61 per cent of the vote, leaving WP with 39 per cent.

Two constituencies, however, have shaped up to be too close to call. Both - Aljunied GRC and Punggol East SMC - are WP strongholds. WP has a larger vote share in Aljunied GRC, with 52 per cent versus PAP's 48 per cent. Punggol East SMC, meanwhile, has the PAP slightly ahead at 51 per cent, leaving 49 per cent for WP.

Still, WP has retained its Hougang SMC, winning 58 per cent versus PAP’s 42 per cent.

The PAP's best-performing constituencies saw the party capture 78 per cent of votes - these are Ang Mo Kio, Jurong, Tanjong Pagar, and West Coast GRCs, as well as Pioneer SMC.

Read more about GE2015 here