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Treasuries having worst month since 2009 on Trump ripple effect

Wednesday, November 30, 2016 - 16:29
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Treasuries are having their worst month since 2009 after investors pulled money from the US bond market on speculation Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election will pave the way for increased fiscal stimulus.

[NEW YORK] Treasuries are having their worst month since 2009 after investors pulled money from the US bond market on speculation Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election will pave the way for increased fiscal stimulus.

A Bloomberg Barclays index that tracks the Treasuries market has lost 2.4 per cent this month through Tuesday. Meanwhile, benchmark 10-year yields have soared the most in back-to-back months since the 2013 taper tantrum as investors shifted into assets such as stocks, which they expect to benefit should Mr Trump succeed in pushing through his proposals.

Longer-term debt fared worst amid the outlook for quicker economic growth and inflation, pushing the extra yield over two-year notes to the widest this year, even as the Federal Reserve signals plans to raise interest rates as soon as next month. For some analysts, that yield gap is bound to shrink.

"The most pronounced story behind the 10-year move is that Trump's spending will boost the economy, boost inflation," said Torsten Slok, international economist for Deutsche Bank AG in New York.

"But if this is really about fiscal spending, you should have seen Fed expectations - and therefore the two-year yield - rise more, too."

US 10-year note yields surged about 23 basis points in October, and are up almost 50 basis points this month. They were at 2.31 per cent as of 8.08am in London Wednesday. It's the steepest climb since 2013, when fears of the Fed abruptly reducing stimulus led investors to sell Treasuries.

Futures signal growing bets that policy makers will follow a hike in December with additional increases next year. Yet the level of 10-year yields suggests that traders should be pricing in more Fed increases than they currently are, suggesting the yield curve should flatten, Mr Slok said.

"If the Trump narrative turns out to be right, we should see the mispricing come undone - two-year yields will rise, and Fed expectations will rise," he said.

"The long end has moved and has moved a lot, so now the front end has got to move also."

BLOOMBERG