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Things you should watch out for

Oil prices fall; the rouble collapses; China liberalises aggressively; military flashpoints escalate - all this could happen in 2015. Be prepared.

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GOING DOWN: The real concern behind falling oil prices lies in how some oil-exporting countries depend on oil revenues to import basic necessities such as food and fuel for their populations.

IN MY article ("The case against persistent global imbalances", BT Dec 31), I reviewed 10 market-changing events in 2014. Given existing and persistent global imbalances, I can reasonably suggest that each of these events has a 10 per cent probability of turning "sour" for the global economy.