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Europe's political risks, post-Brexit

While similar exit referendums are not likely to be held in Europe, anti-EU parties are gaining power in the continent

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We currently do not think that the authorities (usually Parliaments) that could trigger a referendum in other EU countries will choose to do so. Most governments in the EU currently oppose holding EU or eurozone referendums and we currently do not see internal party reasons to external drivers that would change their minds in the near-term.

FOLLOWING the surprising Leave outcome in the UK's referendum on European Union (EU) membership on June 23, we regard it as likely that the UK will exit the EU over the next two-plus years, having invoked Article 50 of the EU Treaty to begin withdrawal negotiations in late 2016 or early 2017.