As Malaysia Budget looms, speculation of snap election intensifies

Expectations are heating up for Malaysia’s next general election to be held as early as this November, following an agreement reached last week among the top leadership of Umno, the biggest component of the country’s ruling coalition. 

In a statement last week, Umno said its top decision-making body - which includes party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob - had agreed that an election should be held sometime this year. The prime minister would present to the King a proposed date to dissolve Parliament, the statement said, without specifying when this would happen.

While the next election is not due until September 2023, rumors of a year-end vote started gaining traction when Ismail Sabri announced in August that the tabling of Budget 2023 would be brought forward by three weeks to this Friday (Oct 7), from its original date of Oct 28.

This had sparked speculation that the timing was to allow for a “feel-good” spending plan to be presented to bolster voter sentiment before the dissolution of Parliament soon after, paving the way for an election in either November or December.

Holding an election in these remaining months of 2022 would appear to severely disadvantage the opposition, said Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

“The (opposition is) suffering from declining voter turnouts, as was evident during the Malacca and Johor state elections. With their lack of resources, they would have a doubly hard time to call upon their traditional supporters to come out to vote during the monsoon season, let alone winning new ones,” Oh said.

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Conversely, Umno possesses tremendous resources and a voter mobilisation system that could be triggered even during the harshest weather conditions, he added.

Many Umno members of parliament have long been pushing for an election to be held this year, although the final decision lies with the Prime Minister, who is the one to decide when to advise the King to dissolve Parliament.

Many lawmakers from the opposition parties, as well as some within Umno itself, have warned against holding an election during the traditional year-end monsoon season because a large part of the peninsula will be flooded, which will discourage voters from turning up to cast their ballots.

Last year, flooding affected 11 states and caused about RM6.1 billion (S$1.88 billion) in losses with damages to homes, vehicles, offices, factories and more. It was reported that at least 54 people died as a result of the floods last year.

Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin, who is also an Umno lawmaker, has said that holding an election during the monsoon season, when flood contingency is expected, is not suitable due to logistical and health concerns.

Under the law, an election must be held in 60 days after Parliament is dissolved. The current term of Malaysia’s Parliament automatically expires in July 2023, five years after its first sitting following the historic general election in 2018, which ended the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition’s uninterrupted six decades in power.

Since then, the country has come under the leadership of three prime ministers due to political infighting and the lack of a clear majority in Parliament. 

This Friday, Finance Minister Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz is widely expected to present an expansionary Budget to counter the rising cost of living in the country and the growing fears of a global recession.

Analysts expect the government to announce cash handouts and other goodies to help the lower-income groups that have been deeply impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic over the last two years.

“There is high anticipation that the government will dish out more goodies than usual to create a ‘feel good’ effect as it will be its last budget before the 15th general election,” CGS-CIMB analysts said in a research note issued last week. “Social support, including cash handouts, will likely expand in depth and scope.”

Some observers noted, however, that the government’s spending power may be more limited this year, given the huge amount it has forked out on subsidies this year. Malaysia expects to spend a record RM80 billion in subsidies in 2022, with that figure likely to be higher next year because of inflation.

A report in the Malay Mail newspaper, quoting constitutional lawyers, noted that Budget 2023 would have no legality if Parliament is dissolved before the proposed spending plan could be approved by lawmakers, because it will remain a Bill after being tabled. Consequently, any measures or policies announced in the upcoming Budget cannot be implemented until a new one is tabled by the next government.