THE BOTTOM LINE

Brazil, Russia, India and China economies after two decades

This November will mark the 20th anniversary of the BRIC acronym that I coined to capture the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Many commentators will be revisiting the concept and assessing each country's performance since 2001, so here are my own thoughts on the matter....

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Bull or bear, 2021 will be an eventful year for investors

IN TWO of my previous commentaries on the peculiar world of equity markets in 2020, I offered a bullish outlook for how events would unfold as the year progressed (with all due caveats for the market's overall unpredictability). In the event, things have broadly played out as I anticipated,...

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G20 leaders must battle Covid-19 on a global scale

WE may soon witness the bargain of the century. G20 leaders, representing the world's largest economies, will discuss Covid-19 this month at a virtual summit, where they will have a chance to secure a return on investment that would make even the legendary investor Warren Buffett blush.

US-China ties: History favours détente over sabre-rattling

WHILE much of the hand-wringing over China has abated somewhat during the Covid-19 crisis, the fears animating Western attitudes towards that country have not disappeared, and could resurface at any moment. These tensions represent a major, vexing dilemma for the world, given China's massive and...

The V-shaped recovery marches on

LARGE swathes of the global economy are exhibiting traditional signs of a V-shaped recovery from the pandemic-induced collapse this spring. The monthly indicators for many countries show vigorous rebounds in June and July, with 10-15 per cent projected growth in real - that is, inflation-...

South Korea is a role model for other economies

ON AUGUST 11, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) signalled that it would be revising its 2020 real (inflation-adjusted) GDP forecast for South Korea from -1.2 per cent to -0.8 per cent, adding to the confidence that the country is faring better economically than...

Are financial markets none the wiser?

IN an April commentary about the wild gyrations in financial markets during the February-March phase of the Covid-19 pandemic, I noted that the behaviour of equity markets had been as bewildering, complex, and fascinating as ever. Still, I suspected that a weird logic was at work, and argued...

Big Pharma to step up and pull for new antibiotics

EARLIER this month, the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers & Associations (IFPMA) launched a nearly US$1 billion AMR (antimicrobial resistance) Action Fund to support the development of desperately needed new antibiotics. Many of the world's largest pharmaceutical...

A V-shaped recovery could still happen

SINCE March, I have been more open than other commentators to the possibility of a "V-shaped" recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn (though I have also consistently warned of structural challenges facing many economies in the decade ahead).

Explaining the pandemic performance differential

I RECENTLY re-read and reflected on everything I have written for Project Syndicate since the start of this year. Two commentaries, in particular, stood out. In January, I suggested that without a new surge in productivity, the world would struggle to achieve the same level of economic growth in...

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Tapping the SDR to help contain Covid-19 economic fallout

OWING to the Covid-19 pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that, between now and the end of 2021, global gross domestic product (GDP) will suffer a cumulative loss of more than US$9 trillion. While the ultimate solution to the crisis will depend on the development and...

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It is time to stop playing the Covid-19 blame game

AS THE Covid-19 crisis roars on, so have debates about China's role in it. Based on what is known, it is clear that some Chinese officials made a major error in late December 2019 and early January 2020, when they tried to prevent disclosures of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, even silencing...

The G-20 will have its pandemic moment

THIS week, G-20 leaders will convene virtually to discuss the Covid-19 crisis. One hopes that the emergency summit marks the beginning of a thoughtful collective response to this grave challenge. If so, the meeting may turn out to be even more consequential than the London summit hosted by...

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Covid-19: A stress test for public health systems

ON JAN 25, Chatham House and Georgetown University hosted US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin for a discussion about US economic policymaking and the world.