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US dollar tumbles versus yen as Trump leads Clinton in key states
[NEW YORK] The US dollar tumbled versus the yen as results from critical battleground states Florida, North Carolina and Ohio showed Democrat Hillary Clinton trailing Republican Donald Trump in the race for the US presidency.
The US dollar fell as much as 3 per cent to 102.04 yen as of 9:16pm in New York, the biggest intraday decline since July. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major peers, fell 0.2 per cent. Overnight implied volatility on the US dollar-yen exchange rate climbed to the highest since Sept 21, gaining for the third day.
With about 94 per cent of precincts reporting, Republican Donald Trump captured 49.2 per cent of the votes in Florida, compared with 47.7 per cent for Mrs Clinton, according to CNN.
The state has 29 electoral votes. In Ohio, Mr Trump leads Mrs Clinton 51.7 per cent to 44.1 per cent with 53 per cent of precincts reporting. In North Carolina, Mr Trump leads 49.4 per cent to 48 per cent with 75 per cent of precincts reporting.
The aggregator RealClearPolitics deemed all three states "toss ups". In an average of polls leading up to the election, Mr Trump led by 0.2 percentage point in Florida, 3.5 percentage points in Ohio and one percentage point in North Carolina. No Republican has ever won the presidency without taking Ohio.
"Trump is likely to take Florida and that means that it is going to be a long day where the race is closer than people had previously thought," said Trinh Nguyen, a senior economist at Natixis SA in Hong Kong.
The market-implied chance of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve stands at 69 per cent, based on US overnight indexed swaps that trade 24 hours a day, compared to 82 per cent at 5pm. The OIS-derived probability tends to be a few percentage points lower compared to calculations based on fed funds futures.
"It's pretty clear at this stage of the count there's a swing back towards Trump and markets don't like it," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.
"There's a big shift in sentiment."