Oil's biggest traders argue over what price should be

London

THE world's biggest oil traders said that crude could rise above US$60 a barrel in a year as demand grows and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) keeps cutting production. Or it might fall to US$45 as another wave of US shale hits the market.

The disagreement between Glencore plc, Gunvor Group Ltd and Trafigura Group Pte on the bullish side, and Vitol Group on the other, underscores the huge uncertainty over the key drivers of oil supply and demand.

Growth in consumption has been stronger than expected this year, helping the recent price gain, but the speed of the expansion in US output has also proved…