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US oil production is 23 years ahead of schedule

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A year ago, the US government saw American crude production averaging 11.95 million barrels a day in 2042. Shale drillers are set to exceed that this year.

[NEW YORK] A year ago, the US government saw American crude production averaging 11.95 million barrels a day in 2042. Shale drillers are set to exceed that this year.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) now estimates output will top out at 14.53 million barrels a day in 2031, according to its Annual Energy Outlook released Thursday.

Why such a big difference? Near-term prices are higher than what the agency assumed last year, boosting the baseline production, according to the EIA.

The US will be a net exporter of petroleum - and energy in general - next year, years sooner than previous annual estimates, something the EIA flagged in its short-term outlook earlier this month. That's due to the faster increases in crude and natural gas liquids production, combined with slower demand growth, according to EIA Administrator Linda Capuano.

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Market voices on:

"America's move to net exports was supposed to be 5 or 6 years off," said Kevin Book, managing director of the Washington-based consultancy ClearView Energy Partners LLC. "Now it's next year. That's big news."

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