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Quick take: Grexit still likely despite agreement on latest bailout: EIU
Eurozone leaders reached an agreement to move forward with a bailout loan for Greece following all-night talks in Brussels.
Commenting on the agreement over a third Greek bailout after protracted talks between eurozone leaders, Alex White, regional director for Europe at The EIU, said:
"We continue to believe that a Grexit is likelier to occur than not, although we are pushing back the time period in which we expect this to happen. We shift our call from Grexit within the next three months, to Grexit before the end of our medium-term forecast period (2019)."
Mr White said the call is based upon the view that the referendum, and subsequent events, have permanently changed the political dynamics in Greece and the wider region.
"If the Greek Parliament does approve a deal, it will be implementing a package than 62 per cent of the population explicitly rejected a week ago. The chances of successful implementation are low. There are particular questions around how Greece will find the required 50 billion euros (S$90 billion) in assets for transfer to the European trust."
Ronny Claeys, senior strategist at KBC Asset Management, told Reuters that in the long run, investors would try to find answers to questions such as whether the deal Athens has agreed with its European peers fundamentally resolves the issue of Greece's debt burden.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Monday surrendered to European demands for immediate action to qualify for up to 86 billion euros of aid he needs to keep his country in the euro area. The move came after six gruelling months of battle against austerity.