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Severe trade war could lop 0.3 percentage point off Singapore's growth

OCBC economists: Such a scenario could vary in impact in Asia, depending on economies' reliance on US-China trade

Janice Heng
Published Wed, Jul 11, 2018 · 09:50 PM

Singapore

A SEVERE trade war between the United States and China could shave 0.3 percentage points off Singapore's GDP growth for 2018, OCBC economists said on Wednesday.

They are considering two possible scenarios: a mild trade war with US tariffs on US$50 billion of imports, and a more severe one with tariffs on US$250 billion worth of goods.

Under the mild scenario, "the impact on 2018 GDP growth is fairly negligible", they said. But under the severe scenario, the downside risks to…

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