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THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT

What to expect in the current bear market

So far, all indicators point to this current bear market being of the milder type

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A good indication of how deep this bear market will be is to estimate the risks of a US recession over the next six and twelve months, and update this probability as each new economic data point is released.

WE are in the midst of a global economic slowdown, with the US being the only bright spot globally. Global leading indicators have turned negative; the one-off boost in year-on-year comparisons from the US tax cuts will be absent next year; and the escalating US-China trade war creates...

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