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Mother Nature will play her hand in Arab-Israeli conflict
PRINCESS Diana once famously observed that there were three people in her marriage, "so it was a bit crowded". The same is true of Israelis and Palestinians. The third person in that marriage is Mother Nature - and she'll batter both of them if they do not come to their senses.
Let's start with Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist organisation that rules the Gaza Strip. If there were an anti-Nobel Peace Prize - that is, the Nobel Prize for Cynicism and Reckless Disregard for One's Own People in Pursuit of a Political Fantasy - it would surely be conferred on Hamas, which just facilitated the tragic and wasted deaths of roughly 60 Gazans by encouraging their march, some with arms, on the Israeli border fence in pursuit of a "return" to their ancestral homes in what is now Israel.
While the march idea emerged from Palestinian society in Gaza, Hamas seized on it to disguise its utter failure to produce any kind of decent life for the Palestinians there, whom Hamas has ruled since 2007.
You hear people say: "What choice did they have? They're desperate." Well, I'll give you a choice - one that almost certainly would lead to an improved life for Gazans, one that I first proposed in 2011.
What if all two million Palestinians of Gaza marched to the Israeli border fence with an olive branch in one hand and a sign in Hebrew and Arabic in the other, saying: "Two states for two peoples: We, the Palestinian people of Gaza, want to sign a peace treaty with the Jewish people - a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, with mutually agreed adjustments." That would have stimulated a huge debate within Israel and worldwide pressure - especially if Hamas invited youth delegations from around the Arab world to launch their own marches, carrying the Arab Peace Initiative. That kind of Palestinian movement would make Israelis feel strategically secure but morally insecure, which is the key to moving the Israeli silent majority.
Hamas chose instead to make Israelis feel strategically insecure and therefore morally secure in killing scores of Hamas followers who tried to breach the border fence.
OK. So much for the "bad" Palestinian leadership. What's Israel's approach to the secular, more moderate Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, whose security forces have cooperated with Israel for years to vastly reduce violence coming from the occupied territories? Answer: Nothing.
Actually, worse than nothing, because Bibi Netanyahu's government has steadily implanted more settlers deep inside Palestinian-populated areas of the West Bank - now 100,000 - beyond the settlement blocs that Israel might keep in any two-state peace deal. It makes separating Israelis and Palestinians increasingly impossible and therefore an apartheid-like situation increasingly likely.
This is where that third person in the marriage comes in: Mother Nature - that is, demographics and ecosystem destruction. And she doesn't recognise lines on maps.
In March, Reuters reported from Jerusalem: "The number of Jews and Arabs between the Mediterranean Sea and Jordan River is at or near parity, figures cited by Israeli officials show, raising questions whether Israel can remain a democracy if it keeps territory where Palestinians seek a state."
And then there's this: Repeated Hamas rocket attacks that led to an Israeli blockade of building supplies, electricity shortages due to intra-Palestinian feuding, and Hamas' regular use of building materials to dig tunnels to penetrate Israel have led to a critical shortage of infrastructure in Gaza, particularly sewage treatment plants. So Gazans now dump about 100 million litres of raw sewage into the Mediterranean daily, said Gidon Bromberg, the Israeli director of EcoPeace Middle East, which promotes peace through environmental collaboration.
Because of the prevailing current, most of that sewage flows north-ward to the Israeli beach town of Ashkelon, the site of Israel's second-biggest desalination plant. Eighty per cent of Israel's drinking water comes from desalination, with 15 per cent of the nation's drinking water coming from the Ashkelon plant.
But now Gaza's waste is floating into Ashkelon's desalination plant, and the plant has had to close several times to clean Gaza's gunk out of its filters.
Moreover, the renewable extraction rate for Gaza's underground aquifer is about 60 million cu m of rain water annually, noted Mr Bromberg, but Gazans have been drawing about 200 million cubic meters a year for over a decade, "so the aquifer has gotten drained and seawater has seeped into it, and many people are now drinking water that is both salty and polluted with sewage".
In a few years, the next protest from Gaza will not be organised by Hamas, but by mothers because typhoid and cholera will have spread through the fetid water and Gazans will all have had to stop drinking it. "Then you could see two million coming to the border fence with Israel with empty buckets, begging for clean water," Mr Bromberg said. "We're heading in that direction."
Bottom line: Israel has never been stronger than it is today. Hamas has never been weaker. If there were ever a time for Israel to take a few calculated risks to try to nurture a different pathway with Palestinians in the West Bank, it's now. Unfortunately, its prime minister is too cowardly, and the US is too slavishly supportive, for that to happen.
Over to you, Mother Nature. NYTIMES