Ten ways coronavirus crisis will shape world in long term

COVID-19 has had an immediate and massive impact. But how will it affect the longer term? That is far harder to tell.

What do we already know, after 10 months of Covid-19? We know that the world was ill-equipped to cope with a pandemic. It has caused about 1.1 million deaths worldwide, mostly among the elderly. And that some countries have suppressed the disease far more successfully than others.

We know that Covid-19 has inflicted a huge global recession, but one that has been far from equal across countries. This has inflicted particularly serious economic damage on the young, the relatively unskilled, working mothers and vulnerable minorities.

We know that "social distancing", partly spontaneous and partly enforced, has damaged all activities dependent on human proximity, while benefiting ones that help people stay home. This has slashed travel. We know that vast numbers of businesses will emerge heavily burdened by debt, and many will fail to emerge at all. Intervention by the fiscal and monetary authorities has been unprecedented in peacetime, especially in countries with internationally accepted currencies.

We know, not least, that the "blame-game" over the pandemic has destabilised relations between the US and China. Moreover, the pandemic has already called globalisation, especially of supply chains, into question.

What are the longer-term possibilities? Here are 10 aspects.

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Covid-19 is a profound shock. It follows the huge disruption of the global financial crisis just 12 years ago. It is sure to have large long-term consequences for business, the economy, domestic politics and international relations. Much will change. We can guess some of it. Much remains uncertain. FINANCIAL TIMES