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The answer to who will win the US election: It's the 401k, stupid

A 401k or similar retirement plan invests Americans' savings in the stock market. As the S&P 500 has risen by 30% since Trump's inauguration, these people feel that their wealth has increased by 30%

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''The bottom line is . . . you have no choice but to vote for me because your 401k, everything, is going to be down the tubes. So whether you love me or hate me, you've got to vote for me,'' Mr Trump has said at a recent rally in Manchester, New Hampshire.

SEARCHING for a way to figure out the outcome of the 2020 presidential election? Instead of reading long studies by public opinion pollsters that focus on, say, demographic trends or the ideological identities of voters, perhaps you need to repeat after me: 401k!

That at least is what...