Turkey's knife-edge election

TURKEY'S general election on June 7 could reshape the country in two ways. It could allow President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to sweep aside the last checks on his power. And it could open the way to resolving the bitter question of possible Kurdish separation.

The poll seems likely to be followed by acrimony and laborious coalition-building. The result will not benefit the Turkish economy, which - as a result of the current account deficit (4.2 per cent of GDP in 2015 against 5.7 per cent last year, according to the IMF) - remains vulnerable to the risk of capital outflows. Especially after the US starts to raise interest rates, possibly later in the summer.

Mr Erdogan's economic miracle is fading. In 2012-14, GDP growth averaged 3.3 per cent, well below the 5.3 per cent of the first eight years of the Erdogan government. Expectations are muted. Under Mr Erdogan, the construction industry has benefited. Other sectors have fared less well. The IMF and World Bank warn that Turkey must lower grow…