Three macro themes to shape the world in 2015

I SEE three main themes that will likely shape the global macro landscape in 2015: disinflationary growth, monetary policy divergence and growing emerging market (EM) differentiation.

The effects of a disinflationary shock from lower commodity prices seen in 2014 should lend support to global growth in 2015.

Lower inflation will boost global consumption and allow many central banks to keep policy loose.

We expect the US to continue growing at a solid pace, on the back of renewed housing acceleration and stronger consumption, as lower energy prices provide a boost to real disposable incomes.

The outlook for the euro area and Japan will remain challenging. In Europe, we expect a moderate growth pick-up, supported by the weaker euro, improving external demand, the European Central Bank's (ECB) easing measures and a mod…