Bonds tumble around the globe as Fed rate odds climb past 50 per cent

[NEW YORK] Bonds are falling around the world as traders increased odds to more than 50 per cent that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed to a seven-week high of 2.24 per cent on Wednesday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said policy makers may move as soon as their December meeting. German yields reached a two-week high. Australian 10-year yields rose for a sixth day Thursday.

"Bond yields are rising around the world in sympathy with Treasuries," said Hajime Nagata, a debt money manager in Tokyo at Diam, which oversees US$142.6 billion. "The market is reaffirming that the Fed will lift off in December." The increase in yields around the world underscores the influence of the Fed on the global debt markets. Treasuries are driving borrowing cost higher even as economic growth slows in China and as central bankers in Europe and Japan signal they may increase their debt-purchase programs. US government securities have a correlation of 0.8 or more with markets including those in Australia, France, Germany and the UK, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. A figure of 1 would mean they move in lockstep.

US 10-year note yields were little changed at 2.22 per cent as of 12:16 pm in Tokyo on Thursday, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 2 per cent security due August 2025 was 98 2/32.

The yield on the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index climbed to 1.09 per cent Wednesday, which is also a seven- week high. The index has fallen 1.1 per cent this month and 3.7 per cent in the past year.

Traders see a 58 per cent chance the Fed will raise its benchmark by its Dec. 15-16 meeting, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. The figure has climbed from 33 per cent a month ago.The calculation assumes the effective fed funds rate averages 0.375 per cent after the first increase, compared with the current range of zero to 0.25 per cent.

BLOOMBERG