Agriculture index may be in early stages of next extended uptrend

SINCE hitting a high of 196 in July 2012, the Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex Total Return has been on a steep downtrend. Even today, the downtrend seems intact. However, we might be in the early stages of a monumental trend reversal as the agriculture index hit a low of 95.19 since December 2017. In total, the Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex fell 51 per cent through the past five years. The Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex is composed of Futures contracts on coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, sugar and wheat.

Note that agriculture commodity moves in cycles with a clear defined timeline. A full cycle consists of a secular bull…