The only certainty is increased unpredictability

A BIG part of investing is managing risks and a big part of managing risks is taking measures to reduce uncertainty. This is why investors pay top dollar for the best forecasters and research. However, this can only help up to a point - sometimes, markets encounter situations where no amount of analysis or insight can reduce the uncertainty. As things stand today, present circumstances represent one such instance, where the only certainty is heightened uncertainty - brought on by the entry of Donald Trump into the White House.

Rabobank last week perhaps summed up the present state of elevated unpredictability when it revived memories of a 1960s TV show that opened with the line "anything can happen in the next half hour!'' - an apt description of how the present White House is issuing disruptive executive orders.

To borrow a phrase from another Donald, namely former Defence Secretary Rumsfeld, one known unknown is that Mr Trump's "America First'' policy involves trade protectionism. This much was made clear by an announcement to slap a 20 per cent tariff on Mexican imports.