Don't expect fireworks for gold in 2018, just a nudge higher

Singapore

GOLD has its fans for next year, but sparks are probably not going to fly.

Even as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy and the European Central Bank tapers bond purchases, gold is set to rise marginally as real interest rates stay low and the US dollar weakens, according to Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities Inc in Toronto. He sees bullion averaging US$1,313 an ounce in 2018, about 4 per cent more than the mean so far this year.

"We don't expect a big shock from the Fed in terms of rates," Mr Melek said in a phone interview last week. "Real rates continue to be quite low by historical standards. That represents a fairly limited rise in the opportunity costs of holding zero-yielding assets like gold. The yield curve is going to be fairly flat as well and that implies a robust p…