It's never wise to bet against a Saudi oil minister

London

DON'T be fooled by the apparent dithering of Opec and friends over whether to extend their output restraint when they meet at the end of the month. They know full well that failing to send a clear signal would send oil prices plummeting.

The apparent backsliding from Russia and a small number of Opec members may be a belated attempt to create a sense of uncertainty ahead of the gathering. The extension will then have a much more positive impact than if it merely ratified a long-flagged intention. Just look at what happened last time they all met, back in May: The decision to extend the cuts to the end of March 2018 was a foregone conclusion. Every ministerial interview said so. When that decision came, the market duly reacted: Brent fell by US$2.50 a barrel amid disappointment that Opec and the others hadn't done even more. They don't want a repeat.