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Morgan Stanley cuts 2015 metals price view; sees recovery by Q1 '16
[LONDON] Morgan Stanley lowered its 2015 metals price forecasts, citing a "surprisingly" large fall in prices in July on China's equity market selloff.
The bank said its price forecast revision focuses only on the next two to three quarters. It expects the investor-led selloff to be replaced by seasonal expansion in metal trade during the first quarter of 2016, helping in a price recovery.
"We have not observed any clear shift in the fundamentals of the metal trades during this latest price fall," Morgan Stanley wrote.
An investor exodus is probably recognition that China's materials-intensive growth cycle is maturing, the bank said.
Morgan Stanley lowered its 2015 price forecast for gold by 4 per cent to US$1,138 per ounce.
"Lack of inflation, emerging financial stability in Europe, and robust economic activity in the US are all bearish for gold. We expect further downside, if the miners start to hedge," the bank said.
Other major revisions in price forecasts for 2015 came in nickel, zinc, aluminium and copper.