Opec's El-Badri says oil will rebound rather than fall to US$20

[DAVOS] Oil prices will rebound rather than extend their decline to as low as US$20 a barrel because a collapse since June isn't merited by global supply and demand, Opec's Secretary-General said.

Producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should be first to reduce their output amid a surplus that's pushed crude below US$50 a barrel, Abdalla El-Badri said in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday. Iraq, Opec's fastest- growing supplier, said it needs to boost output to compensate for revenues eroded by the price slump.

"The price will not go to US$20 or $25, I think the price will stay at where we are now," El-Badri said. "We have seen this before - prices coming down very fast and go up very slow. But prices will rebound." Oil slumped almost 60 per cent since June as Opec nations continued pumping amid the highest US production in more than three decades. The 12-nation group's decision on Nov. 27 to maintain output was based on economics, and wasn't intended to target US shale drillers, Russia or any other country, El- Badri said.

First Movers Non-Opec nations, some of which require prices of US$100 a barrel to sustain output, should be first to pull back as their production has expanded over the past decade while OPEC's remained stable, El-Badri said. Opec decided in November that, if it cut supply, rising non-Opec output would have required it to make successive reductions through to 2016, he said.

Brent crude for March settlement, the international benchmark, advanced 86 cents, or 1.8 per cent, to US$48.85 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London at 5:40 p.m. local time on Wednesday.

Iraq, OPEC's second-biggest member, has lost about 50 per cent of its revenues because of the slump in oil and consequently needs to bolster output, Deputy Prime Minister Rowsch Nuri Shaways said Wednesday at the WEF in Davos.

"Because of the new challenges, especially the price of oil, Iraq has to try its best to raise it oil production and exports," Shaways said.

An agreement last month between the country's federal government and the semi-autonomous Kurdish region will boost exports by more than 550,000 barrels a day, he said. The nation is pumping at about 4 million barrels a day, already a record, Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said Jan 19.

Opec and non-Opec producers must keep investing in new supplies despite the price plunge, El-Badri said. Without sufficient spending in additional capacity over the next five years, oil prices could rebound above US$100 a barrel.

Opec's crude output rose by 80,000 barrels a day last month to 30.48 million as additional oil from Iraqi fields more than offset a collapse in Libyan production, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly market report Jan. 16.

BLOOMBERG