Opec's grand planners thinking about US$70 oil

London

AS recently as Opec's last meeting, back in May, several oil ministers were talking quite casually about US$50 a barrel as a good price for crude. Don't expect that to be repeated when they convene again at the end of this month.

In fact, expect quite the opposite. As oil has risen, Opec ministers' assessments of a "fair price" for their crude have probably increased too, and that could put them at odds with their chief non-Opec partner: Russia.

Opec has form on this creeping assessment of a fair price for oil. The right price always seems to be a little higher than the current price, no matter what that might be. That was true in the 1990s, when oil cost about US$20 a barrel. It was true too in early 2008, sho…