Optimism masks Iran risk to oil rally from 12-year low

Hong Kong

OIL'S recovery from a 12-year low may be too good to last as Iranian output rebounds faster than expected.

Opec last week stuck to its policy of unfettered production, deciding against a new output ceiling as the price rally supported optimism among its members that the oil market is improving. Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, Iran's Oil Minister, said fellow Opec members didn't give him any negative signals when they met on Thursday in Vienna about his nation's plan to further raise production.

The Persian Gulf nation's production has surged to the highest since 2011, quicker than the International Energy Agency predicted it could recover to pre-sanctions levels. Meanwhile, prices raced back to US$50 a barrel as outages from Nigeria to Canada offset Iran's return, averting the market apocalypse some were expecting. But a possible recovery of lost output elsewhere in the world risks putting renewed pressure on prices, according to analysts at Commerzbank AG and Barclays pl…