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Traders banking on a weaker euro by end-2016

A 71 per cent chance of a rate increase by the Fed's Dec 13-14 meeting and dovish signals from the ECB could translate to downward pressure

London

TRADERS selling the euro are counting on history not to repeat itself. After being stuck in a range for months, the single currency has fallen below the median end-of-2016 forecast in a Bloomberg survey as investors come to the conclusion European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will ease monetary policy in December, just as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.

Options also signal a weaker euro, which may deliver the economic boost Mr Draghi is trying to achieve.

The same trade blew up in investors' faces after the ECB's December 2015 meeting. With the market heavily positioned for a stimulus boost, Mr Draghi's measures fell short of market expectations, causing the euro to surge...

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