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[SHANGHAI] Brexit has cast a shadow over London's coveted status as the top offshore renminbi hub in Europe, although bankers say the city still has strong cards to play against its continental rivals.
The UK's June 23 referendum came less than a month after China's Ministry of Finance printed debut Dim Sum bonds of 3 billion renminbi (S$616 million) in London, the latest in a series of initiatives going back five years to promote the internationalisation of the renminbi in London.
The close financial cooperation between the UK and China, one of the highlights of President Xi Jinping's state visit last October, may stall in the near term as Britain looks at ways to handle its exit from the EU.
Brexit "is a slap in the MoF's face", said a DCM banker.
"It will probably have second thoughts about a second or third Dim Sum sale in London."
When the People's Bank of China launched its first bond sale outside the PRC in London last year during Mr Xi's visit, there were expectations that China would issue more Dim Sum bonds of various tenors in the city to build a complete yield curve for the offshore renminbi in Europe.
Following Brexit, China is now likely to review its renminbi strategy for Europe.
"China used to prioritise the renminbi centre in London over other centres on the continent, but after Brexit it will give at least equal attention to London and other centres, such as Luxembourg and Frankfurt," said Lian Ping, chief economist with Bank of Communications.
Even China's official news agency, Xinhua, noted that Brexit could affect the internationalisation of the renminbi, in view of the role London has played in the process to date.
"Brexit will challenge London's position as a premier global financial centre, which may encumber the pace of the renminbi's internationalisation," Xinhua said on the day after the vote.
BoCom's Mr Lian said other major European cities would seize the opportunity to strengthen their own standings and China needed to take the shift into account.
According to lawyers, barriers may be put in the way of selling London-based renminbi products to European investors.
"As a result of the vote, it will, subject to whatever deal the UK negotiates, likely be more difficult for London-based banks to market and sell inside the EU and there may be restrictions on EU investors' ability to buy London-originated renminbi products," said Andrew Carmichael, capital markets partner at Linklaters.
"For example, some institutional investors only want to invest in products that are traded on a stock exchange in Europe. Currently, these investors are able to invest in renminbi products, such as bonds, listed on the London Stock Exchange, but this may be more difficult under the new rules."
However, most market participants do not foresee the immediate decline of London as the leading offshore renminbi hub, given its unparalleled advantages in foreign-exchange trading and its favourable time zone and language.
London overtook Singapore as the second-largest offshore renminbi clearing centre in terms of payments processing volumes, just behind Hong Kong, said global transaction services organisation Swift in April.
Hong Kong still processes 72.5 per cent of all renminbi payments, against 6.3 percent in London and 4.6 per cent in Singapore.
"The key reason that London has become the biggest CNH market outside Asia, first of all, is the advantage of being the biggest centre for forex trading," said Jinny Yan, London-based chief China economist at ICBC Standard Bank.
"Overall advantages in time zone and language have allowed London to thrive as an offshore RMB hub. In my view, none of these factors will change as a result of the referendum."
She pointed out that it would be very difficult for other European cities to replicate London's success as an international financial centre in the immediate future.
Luxemburg, Frankfurt and Paris all have different competitive advantages, according to Ms Yan. Paris and Frankfurt have a natural edge for trade settlement given the large trade volumes of France and Germany with China, while the UCITS fund community domiciled in Luxemburg is crucial for cross-border renminbi activities in the euro area.
However, London's dominance in the forex market means it is still the top settlement centre for all cross-border renminbi activities outside Asia.
Britain also has an edge for commodities trading and is still holding discussions with China to set up a stock-trading link between London and Shanghai.
Ms Yan noted that Brexit gave the UK an added incentive to defend its position as the leading offshore renminbi centre outside of Asia, as global use of the currency is set to grow.
"Confronted with restrictions from the EU, the UK is more likely to step up efforts to develop the offshore renminbi market as it seeks closer ties with big developing countries, including China and India," BoCom's Lian Ping said.
For more coverage of the EU referendum, visit bt.sg/BrexiT