China's debt seen rising through 2019, peaking at 283% of GDP

Beijing

CHINA'S ratio of debt to its economic size is seen climbing for at least another four years, underscoring the risks facing policy makers as they strive to prevent a deeper slowdown without triggering a credit blowout.

Seven out of 12 economists see the debt-to-gross-domestic- product ratio increasing through at least 2019, with four expecting a peak in 2020 or later, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Debt will peak at 283 per cent of GDP, according to the median estimate of eight economists.

Policy makers grappling with the fallout from a credit binge after the global financial crisis are also being confronted by anaemic demand for exports and an ageing workforce, pushing economic growth to the slowest pace in a quarter of a century. With robust consumption and services struggling to p…