Greece bailout on knife-edge after EU cancels summit amid acrimony

London

HOPES for a Greek bailout and an end to the euro crisis are hanging on a thin thread.

Such has been the acrimony between French and Italian supporters of the Greece bailout proposal and angry sceptics, notably the German, Finnish, Slovakian and several other eurozone delegations, that a Sunday summit of European Union (EU) leaders was cancelled.

After arguing for nine hours on Saturday, European finance ministers met again on Sunday to see if they could thrash out at least a short-term finance deal with Greece. Regardless what they decide, German, Finnish, Slovakian and other parliaments must approve any deals.

The German press leaked a German government plan to negotiate a temporary five-year euro exit, providing Greece with humanitarian aid should no deal be forthcoming.

According to the leaks, the German Finance Ministry, reportedly with Chancellor Angela Merkel's reluctant agreement, proposes that Greece must provide collateral if it wants a further 54 billion-euro (S$81 billion) bailout to remain in the euro.

Brussels should also send in officials and experts to manage the nation's public administration.

It would be surprising, however, if Greece accepts such a proposal.

Under its own regulations, the European Central Bank (ECB) cannot provide Greek banks with more finance. If ECB president Mario Draghi and his board decide to print more money to finance Greek banks, they would be breaking the rules of the central bank and the eurozone monetary system.

The Greek banks, and hence the nation's economy, are now in a critical position with estimates that they have less than half a billion euros to provide 69 euros a day to individuals and emergency finance for medical supplies and hospitals.

The reverberations from a Greek banking collapse would hurt depositors of Greek satellite banks in Cyprus, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Romania, bankers warn.

The message from the Greek government is that capital controls could remain for months regardless whether a deal is forged with Greece's creditors. Discussions are expected on Monday on recapitalisation of Greek banks via mergers or the creation of a "bad bank" for bad loans. The model could be Cyprus which had capital controls for two years after its own crisis a few years ago.

Events are now moving so fast that it is difficult to forecast the scenarios of Greece; whether it will remain within the eurozone with a dual domestic euro currency subject to capital controls or forced out of the eurozone with its own devalued currency, eg, the drachma. With this in mind, it is best to consider the facts.

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