Post-Fed calm in Treasuries masks a raging bulls-bears debate

New York

THE US Federal Reserve's rate hike is in the rear-view mirror, Treasuries volatility is tumbling and the consensus on Wall Street is for 10-year yields to tread water through June.

Yet beneath that apparent calm, the range of forecasts in the latest Bloomberg survey underscores that a debate is simmering over whether long-term yields are poised to enter a bear market or just keep bumping around in months-old ranges.

Ten-year yields will rise to 2.65 per cent by the end of next quarter, from about 2.5 per cent now, according to the median estimate of 53 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg through March 17. After the Fed's decision last week, that forecast is almost 10 basis points higher than foreseen a month ag…