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Quick takes: Singapore's NODX growth back on track, but outlook still cautious

Monday, July 17, 2017 - 10:54

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Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in June 2017 rose by 8.2 per cent to S$14.7 billion compared with a year ago due to the increase in electronic and non-electronic NODX.

SINGAPORE'S non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in June 2017 rose by 8.2 per cent to S$14.7 billion compared with a year ago due to the increase in electronic and non-electronic NODX.

Here are some economists' comments:

Francis Tan, UOB:

"Today's release of June NODX validates our argument and we still maintain our positive outlook on the overall NODX expansion for 2017, supported by continued growth in electronics exports. However, we do not expect the strong double-digit NODX growth since November 2016 can be sustained into the second half of 2017. This is especially since the current electronics cycle may be coming to an end with the rolling out of the next wave of smartphones likely in 2H 2017.

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Market voices on:

"IE Singapore (the trade agency) had in May revised their forecast for 2017 NODX to grow 4-6 per cent from 0-2 per cent previously, and we maintain our NODX growth forecast at 4 per cent."

Nomura:

"June NODX growth was boosted by the reversal of an unfavourable base effect in May from the one-off spike in NODX last year.

"Overall, we continue to forecast full-year 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.5 per cent, similar to the official 1-3 per cent forecast range and an increase from 2 per cent growth in 2016. However, the broader economy outside of semiconductors remains weak and GDP growth will likely remain uneven this year, in our view."

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