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South Korea Nov exports seen likely to rebound, inflation expected to creep up: poll
[SEOUL] South Korea's exports are expected to rise in November for the first time since August as the shock from Samsung Electronics' Galaxy Note 7 cancellation and strikes at Hyundai Motor Co dissipates and global trade shows signs of improvement.
Exports are expected to rise 1.2 per cent this month from a year ago, bouncing from a 3.2 per cent decline in October, a Reuters poll found on Monday. Imports are expected to gain 2.9 per cent over the same period versus a 4.8 per cent drop in October, the same poll showed.
Shipments have fallen every month of the past two years with the exception of August when they rose.
"It's positive global trade conditions have improved compared to the first half of the year," said Na Jung Hyuk, an economist at Hyundai Securities in Seoul.
"Whether this will be sustained is yet to be seen as we're facing a number of global factors that will spark uncertainty, like Donald Trump taking office in the US, which will aggravate concerns over protectionism."
As the world's sixth biggest exporter with key shipments ranging from smartphones to cars, South Korea has been seen as one of the most vulnerable economies should the incoming Trump administration adopt protectionist policies.
South Korea's inflation rate is expected to pick up for a third straight month to 1.5 per cent in November from 1.3 per cent in October, the Reuters poll showed, with prices of several global commodities on the rise.
Fresh produce prices are expected to continue adding inflationary pressure, in addition to the city gas price hike that took effect Nov 1.
Meanwhile, the same poll saw industrial output likely to slip 0.1 per cent on-month in October, down from a 0.3 per cent gain seen in September.
October industrial output data will be published on Nov 30, with November trade and inflation data out on Dec 1.