Trump loses in Wisconsin, but his lead remains formidable

[WASHINGTON] The Stop Trump movement enjoyed its greatest victory so far, with Senator Ted Cruz winning Tuesday's Wisconsin primary almost any way the electorate could be sliced.

Mr Trump lost among female voters by 13 percentage points, his worst margin other than a 16-point loss in Ohio on March 15. An exit poll found that he also fell short by 17 points among voters without college degrees, an important part of his national base. More than half of Wisconsin Republicans said they'd be concerned or scared if Trump was elected president. The defeat was so stinging that his campaign released a terse statement calling Mr Cruz a "Trojan horse" that is "being used by the party bosses to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump".

Yet the billionaire remains in the driver's seat in the nomination race, maintaining a commanding lead over Mr Cruz in the delegate count and holding on to a real chance-albeit less of one after Tuesday's loss - of collecting the 1,237 he needs to clinch the nomination before the Republican convention in July.

Mr Trump also enjoys a 31-point lead in New York, which holds the next primary on April 19, and an 18-point lead in Pennsylvania, one of five states that follow a week later, according CBS News polls released Sunday. Ohio Governor John Kasich, who cannot win the nomination without a convention fight, finished a distant third in Wisconsin.

"This slows the momentum some, but it's not a major blow," said Representative Tom Marino, a Pennsylvania Republican backing Mr Trump.

Still, Mr Marino said he raised concerns with Mr Trump about how to better organize the campaign and urged the candidate to reign-in his freewheeling style. Mr Trump himself has noted his reluctance to tone down his campaign in recent weeks, telling crowds that his wife and daughter have both begged him to behave more "presidential" on the campaign trail. But Mr Trump told audiences that he waved off those worries, saying he's only fighting back against a party establishment that he believes is treating him unfairly.

"He's had a bad week," Mr Marino said.

"But tell me one person running for president, or Senate or city council who hasn't had a bad week. Donald Trump isn't used to being out on the campaign trail, but he's taking the advice. You've already seen a more presidential Donald Trump. But sometimes you fall off the wagon."

Those slips - including a series of abortion stumbles and the charging of his campaign manager with simple battery - cost Mr Trump dearly, as he lost key parts of his base in Wisconsin to Mr Trump. Mr Trump has won a plurality of female voters in 13 of 21 Republican contests with exit or entrance polls. But on Tuesday he lost this crucial voting bloc to Cruz by double digits.

Those who agreed the United States should temporarily ban Muslim immigrants, a position Mr Trump was first to propose, said they backed Mr Cruz more than Mr Trump, according to exit polls. Just 6 per cent of Wisconsin voters said immigration - the issue that powered Trump's rise to the top of national polls - was their top concern.

"Trump has been weighed down by a bulk of things, a compilation of things he said, has said, and his changes on issues," said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster who is advising Our Principles PAC, a super-PAC funded by long-time Republican donors aimed at stopping Mr Trump.

"There have always been about one-third of the Republican electorate that was strongly for Trump, but there's another third that won't ever vote for him in a primary," Mr Goeas said.

"And that opposition is becoming firmer of the recent weeks, and we're now seeing a critical mass." In response to the loss in Wisconsin, Mr Trump's campaign said it continued to have "total confidence" that he will win the White House. Yet changes to his strategy are in evidence around the margins.

Seeking to keep better control of crowds and limit protests, his campaign held rallies in smaller-than-usual venues in Wisconsin. Offering a rare statement of regret, Mr Trump admitted it was a mistake to repost an unflattering picture of his rival's wife on Twitter.

Countering criticisms that his campaign lacked substance, Mr Trump plans to deliver a series of policy speeches in the coming days. Among the topics: strengthening the nation's military, reforming the education system, and outlining the criteria by which a President Trump would select Supreme Court justices, according to the Washington Post.

Still, it didn't help in Wisconsin. Mr Cruz won men and women, young and old, high-school graduates and those with post-graduate degrees. Mr Cruz was the top choice for those who said their top issue was the economy, terrorism or government spending.

"Tonight is a turning point," Cruz said at his victory party in Wisconsin. "It is a rallying cry. It is a call from the hard working people of Wisconsin to the people of America. We have a choice. A real choice."

Mr Trump's only show of strength in the state was among those who identified themselves as moderate Republicans - with 40 per cent of that group picking Mr Trump, 31 per cent for Mr Cruz and 26 per cent of Mr Kasich.

On the eve of the primary, Mr Cruz barnstormed the southern part of the state with a town hall in Madison, meet-and-greets in Kenosha and Milwaukee and a rally in crucial Waukesha County.

At the Mars Cheese Castle in Kenosha, an upbeat Mr Cruz talked up the importance of a victory in Wisconsin, saying it would contribute to a "national trend" of Donald Trump getting "whooped".

"It'll make a powerful statement all across the country," he said.

"Number one, it will continue to add to our delegates. Number two, I think it will have a powerful impact on the states that are coming up. It will show what's happening nationally, which is Republican are uniting behind our campaign."

He touted the same policy prescriptions he's been pushing for months - passing a flat tax, deregulating business activity, repealing Obamacare and stopping "amnesty" - but sprinkled some flavor for Wisconsinites who have lost manufacturing jobs, taking a page from Mr Trump.

Mr Cruz's ideas, he promised, would "bring millions and millions of high paying jobs back to America - back from China, back from Mexico - bring manufacturing jobs back to the state of Wisconsin."

At his victory rally on Tuesday, Mr Cruz - who built his reputation on battling party leaders - seemed to pivot to the middle by quoting none other than John F Kennedy, who accepted the Democratic presidential nomination in 1960 with a dramatic vision.

"We are not here to curse the darkness, but to light the candle," Mr Cruz said.

"Tonight, Wisconsin has lit a candle guiding the way forward. Tonight, we once again have hope for the future."

BLOOMBERG