Yuan forecasters get it wrong again as China jolts markets

Shanghai

CHINA'S yuan policy has blindsided forecasters once again.

The sudden surge in the last four days - for the onshore exchange rate, it's been the steepest gain in more than four months - pushed the currency beyond levels predicted by even the most optimistic analysts. Market watchers were caught off guard earlier in the year as well, when the yuan confounded expectations by strengthening in the first quarter.

As analysts rush to change estimates, with at least eight doing so in the last four days, they're also debating what happene…