BANGLADESH’S central bank will allow the currency to float freely – finally giving into demands from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – to unlock more money from the US$4.7 billion loan programme.

While Bangladesh is not heavily indebted, it joins several such countries in loosening a tight grip on local currencies in order to get financing from the Washington-based lender. Pakistan, Egypt and Lebanon were among those that have dropped their exchange rates this year.

The new market-driven exchange rate regime will provide “greater transparency and efficiency in foreign exchange transactions, benefiting businesses, individuals and the economy”, the Bangladesh central bank said in a statement. It also doesn’t see any major depreciation of the taka, which has declined about 5 per cent this year.

The taka was indicated 0.3 per cent lower at 108.16 per dollar in early Asian trading on Monday (Jun 19). The quote reflects market levels and not necessarily traded prices.

Bangladesh Bank will adopt a unified exchange rate regime between the taka and the dollar or any other foreign currency, and from Jul 1 it will no longer sell any foreign exchange at a discounted rate. By the third quarter of 2023, all international transactions will be based on the new exchange rate structure and this will close the gap between formal and informal markets, the central bank said.

A looser currency regime could help replenish Bangladesh’s reserves by raising the attractiveness of the nation’s exports. Bangladesh, the world’s biggest exporter of clothing after China, is projected to take a 0.8 percentage point hit to its economic growth from a slowdown in shipments this year, Bloomberg Economics had estimated in January. The taka will need to fall to 145 per dollar, it had said.

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The government received US$476 million as the first instalment of the IMF loans in February, while the disbursement of the second tranche is expected in November. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has said her country is in a position to pay back the loan taken from the IMF, saying the lender only gives “assistance to countries that can repay their bill”.

Last month, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Bangladesh’s ratings to B1 from Ba3 as the economy weakened amid “heightened external vulnerability and liquidity risks”. The central bank has dismissed the action, saying there will be limited impact because the country hasn’t issued sovereign bonds.

Tight policy

Bangladesh is seeking a path to boost economic growth to 7.5 per cent for the next fiscal year starting Jul 1 and eventually graduate from being a least developed country. But inflation remains a major concern due to pandemic-related spending, soaring commodity prices and the weaker taka.

Consumer prices rose 9.94 per cent in May, overshooting the average inflation target of 6 per cent while the government sees 6.03 per cent growth estimate for the current fiscal year, led by a “deceleration” in industries, services and agriculture.

The central bank “will adopt a tight monetary policy” for the first half of the new fiscal year Bangladesh Bank governor Abdur Rouf Talukder said. He made the comments after raising the repurchase agreement rate by 50 basis points to 6.5 per cent and the standing deposit facility by 25 basis points.

Bangladesh Bank also introduced a market-driven reference lending rate for all types of bank loans, replacing the three-year-old lending rate cap that helped to keep easy credit available for private businesses.

“This approach provides utmost priority to containing inflation to the desired level while ensuring the necessary flow of funds to productive and employment-generating sectors to support the targeted economic growth,” the central bank said. BLOOMBERG