A US government shutdown would harm the country’s credit, rating agency Moody’s said on Monday (Sep 25), a stern warning coming one month after Fitch downgraded the US by one notch on the back of a debt ceiling crisis.

US government services would be disrupted and hundreds of thousands of federal workers furloughed without pay if Congress fails to provide funding for the fiscal year starting Oct 1.

A possible shutdown would be further evidence of how political polarisation in Washington is weakening fiscal policymaking at a time of rising pressures on US government debt affordability because of higher interest rates, Moody’s analyst William Foster told Reuters.

“If there is not an effective fiscal policy response to try to offset those pressures ... then the likelihood of that having an increasingly negative impact on the credit profile will be there,” said Foster. “And that could lead to a negative outlook, potentially a downgrade at some point, if those pressures aren’t addressed.”

Moody’s rates the US government “AAA” with a stable outlook, the highest creditworthiness it assigns to borrowers. It is the last major agency to maintain such a rating for the US after Fitch downgraded the government by one notch in August to AA+ – the same rating assigned by S&P Global in 2011.

“Fiscal policymaking is less robust in the US than in many AAA-rated peers, and another shutdown would be further evidence of this weakness,” Moody’s said.

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President Joe Biden’s top economic adviser, Lael Brainard, said the Moody’s comment highlighted the risks caused by the congressional manoeuvring.

“Today’s statement from Moody’s underscores that a Republican shutdown would be reckless, create completely unnecessary risks for our economy, and lead to disruptions for communities and families across the country,” Brainard, director of the National Economic Council, said.

“Congress must do its job and keep the government open.”

A Treasury spokesperson said the Moody’s report delivered “further evidence that a shutdown could undercut our current economic momentum” at a time when inflation and unemployment were both below 4 per cent.

Moody’s said the economic impact of a shutdown would likely be limited and short-lived, with the most direct effect from lower government spending, and the negatives growing the longer the shutdown lasts.

Congress so far has failed to pass any spending bills to fund federal agency programmes in the fiscal year starting on Oct 1 amid a Republican Party feud.

The shutdown would not affect government debt payments. Earlier this year political brinkmanship around the US debt limit threatened to cause a US sovereign debt default.

That crisis, even though it was eventually resolved before any missed debt payment, was a major factor leading to Fitch’s downgrade last month.

“In this environment of higher rates for longer and pressures building on the debt affordability front, it’s that much more important that fiscal policy can respond,” said Foster at Moody’s.

“And it looks increasingly challenged because of things such as the government shutdown and having come off the debt limit episode because it’s such a polarised political dynamic in Washington,” he said. REUTERS