A major bear market around the corner? Not quite yet

THE month of October often creates apprehension among investors, given its track record with the 1929 and 1987 share market crashes. And it was in October 2007 that US shares peaked ahead of 50 per cent-plus falls (in most share markets) through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

From the post-GFC share market lows in March 2009, US shares are up 278 per cent and global shares are up 196 per cent to new record highs; Australian shares are up 92 per cent.

After such strong gains, it is natural to wonder whether another major bear market is imminent. Aside from left-field events triggering a crash, the key question remains: Where are we in the investment cycle? This article updates our analysis on this front from earlier this year, and also provides a comparison to 1987.