THE United States’ fresh aid allocation to Ukraine, worth US$61 billion, may prevent any massive Russian breakthrough this spring or summer – but is probably not a game changer that will fundamentally alter the course of war.

Friday (May 3) marks 800 days since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and attention is now moving to the urgent need for a long-term strategy for Ukraine.

While the US aid may well prevent Ukraine from losing in 2024, it won’t in itself provide a pathway to victory for Kyiv. Getting further large chunks of US aid to Ukraine may be challenging from 2025, if the war still continues then.