A Labour-led government may be just what the UK needs

THE British general election on May 7 doesn't matter much to most people outside the UK. The most likely outcome is a government continuing the same kind of political stability of the Conservative-Liberal coalition since 2010. The man who looks most likely to be the next prime minister, Ed Miliband, leader of the opposition Labour Party, may surprise everyone by turning out sharper and more successful than many suspect.

None of these three statements chimes with conventional wisdom. The tightly fought race, for which the cliche "too close to call" might have been invented, is widely held to be of great significance for the rest of Europe. This is because the outcome could decide whether or not there will be a referendum on British membership of the European Union, which Prime Minister David Cameron has promised if the Conservatives win.

Because Mr Cameron is unlikely to triumph, a referendum will probably not take place. A Labour-led government (even though it would lack a firm majority and would rely on the mercurial Scottish Nationalists for support) could usher in a more stable overall political constellation for the UK and the rest of Europe than a continuation of the Cameron-led administration. With all its imperfections, the EU will struggle on with Britain still on its side.