Brexit - a difficult balancing act all round

LATE last year, the EU and UK negotiators on Brexit agreed that they could move on to talks about the UK's relationship with the EU after it withdraws in 2019. Currently, talks continue but behind the scenes, with both parties very coy about the content. Long may this continue, so that the media is frustrated and cannot speculate with any overt evidence.

But this does not stop speculation by the press on either side's position, not helped by the inability of both sides to keep their mouths shut. Such it ever was.

There have been quite significant developments within both negotiating parties. The EU's talisperson (post Weismann PC language) - Angela Merkel - has been replaced by Emmanuel Macron of France, as Germany cannot form a government. He has recently been in the UK on a supposed friendly visit, the major outcome of which is an agreement to lend the UK the original Bayeux Tapestry, which celebrates the last time that France won an argument against Britain (1066), but was woven in England. Very weird diplomacy and quite obviously a disguised insult. However, it won him funding from the UK to defend the French border at Calais against immigrants who could not be stopped at other EU borders because of the Schengen Agreement, to which the UK is not a part. Other EU members are beginning to indicate that if the UK actually does leave the EU, they are not up for redressing the deficit in the budget and the EU cloth must be cut accordingly. This is worrisome to the EU leaders, who we must remember are unelected and whose accounts have never received a clean audit. Rather than alleging fraudulent behaviour at these levels, let's move on to the UK.

You would have the thought that the cracks beginning to arise in the EU position would have given heart to UK negotiators. However, UK politicians cannot establish a serious negotiating position. Currently, the UK supposedly has the upper hand and could be looking for a knockout blow, whereby the UK gets total independence from the EU, retains its position as the predominant financial centre of the world and can trade with whomsoever it likes on whatever terms it wants. Weirdly, several very influential commentators/think tanks have urged the UK to become the "Singapore in Reverse", becoming the independent, business-friendly nation that sits between Europe/Asia and America (North and South). Poor Africa! Please add it to the UK's future role - it was tough enough listening to President Donald Trump's description, however fair that may have been.

Singapore - please pat yourself on the back. Only 50 years old and you are the model for world economic relations.

Back to the UK. Ever since Theresa May's catastrophic election campaign, the government is unable to express a clear opinion on what it wants after Brexit. This a serious negotiating problem, because unless you know what you want in two years' time, you can hardly hold serious talks with the other party, no matter how weak they may be. Here in the UK, we are incredibly nervous about the political future. The only credible alternative to the current government is Marxist and so it is important that Jeremy Corbyn and his hitmen are sidelined for the foreseeable future, no matter that he is ostensibly in favour of a "hard" Brexit. This requires the Conservative-led government to give strong leadership on all fronts, top of the list being Brexit, but next being the National Health Service (NHS), because this is the second most important area for votes. The Labour Party is seen as the champion of the NHS, as it introduced it. Right now, the NHS is overwhelmed by a flu crisis and no matter who tosses whatever money at it, there is no short-term solution. Being the party in power, the Conservatives are to blame and any new election will show this.

The UK government is weak and has no flagship policy to strengthen it. If it fails, Britain goes back to the Dark Ages of economic failure under socialism. Its only redemption is a strong policy on Brexit, with a vision of global success. Yet it is riven with doubt and indecision. Theresa May flip flops on Brexit and is served by senior ministers who cannot agree with each other. "Hard" and "soft" Brexit divide her Cabinet and she has to decide which way to go and provide leadership.

My view is very simple - go for full autonomy and try to replicate the success of Singapore. But do it now, stop vacillating.