China holds the cards if talks with Manila come to pass

EVEN before the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague announced in late June that the arbitral tribunal in the case of the Philippines against China will issue its award, or decision, on Tuesday, the Chinese government had been lobbying furiously around the world for support for its position of not accepting or recognising any ruling made by the international tribunal.

Last Saturday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said that at least 60 countries - more than 30 of them from Africa - have voiced support for China's stance. This is a reflection of China's increasing influence, especially in Africa, where 51 countries are benefiting from its largesse.

China also appears to have stepped up its claims in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea doesn't bestow any territorial status on low-tide elevations, which is what the majority of China-controlled features were before cement was poured on them to turn them into islands. Yet, the foreign ministry spokesman said that "the islands, reefs, cays, sands and the relevant waters of China's Nansha Islands are interrelated and have always been taken as a whole".