Economists should not make forecasts

DECEMBER always has a rash of economic forecasts for the year ahead. The reception areas at CNBC and Bloomberg TV are crowded with mobs of economists fighting to get their forecasts on air. But there are big problems with making precise economic forecasts.

Economic models are not precise. Models use lots of assumptions. Those assumptions may not turn out to be true. Models give a range of possibilities rather than a single, certain number. Economists know and understand these issues. However, the…