Election threatens to break up the United Kingdom

London

THERESA May owes her position as British prime minister to the parliamentary majority that her predecessor, David Cameron, won in 2015. But if the result of her surprise June 8 general election vindicates pollsters, Mrs May will wield a much stronger popular mandate than Mr Cameron did.

The ruling Conservative Party is unlikely to win more than 50 per cent of the vote. Polls suggest she will receive around 44 per cent, enough to secure a big parliamentary majority under Britain's electoral system. Mrs May could argue a substantial parliamentary majority amounts to an endorsement of her pursuit of a "hard exit" from the European Union. That entails leaving the EU single market and customs union so the UK can control immigration by EU citizens, free itself from the European Court of Justice's jurisdiction, and pursue its own trade deals. Equally, a large majority might give Mrs May more scope to compromise in Brexit negotiations, as she will be less vulnerable to pressure from hard-line Brexiteers.