Europe's febrile 2025 future - five scenarios

EUROPEAN Union (EU) leaders are meeting this week for their last summit before the United Kingdom is anticipated to trigger Article 50 later this month, setting off formal exit negotiations. Their March 9-10 session will include focus on a new White Paper launched last week by European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker on the future of Europe by 2025.

For while massive attention has focused on the impact of last June's Brexit referendum for the UK, how the bloc itself changes will probably prove the more important, but the most overlooked, outcome of the vote. To this end, Mr Juncker's paper outlines five main scenarios for how the EU could evolve with a view to shaping debate and finalising a vision for the future that can potentially see the continent emerge from the current political and economic storm engulfing it.

The scenarios range from the EU retreating to no more than the current economic Single Market which seeks to guarantee freedom of movement of goods, capital, services and people. At the other end of the spectrum, however, is a quite different future where the remaining 27 member states decide to do much more together, reigniting European integration.