Fasten your seat belts, but there is no need to panic
A quantitative modelling scenario points to a better year in 2016 for firms and investors, both in terms of currency stabilisation and overall economic activity.
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CHRISTMAS and New Year celebrations seem already very far away. With world luminaries competing on pessimism in Davos, markets on a rollercoaster and the feeling of acute uncertainty about political and economic developments in the air, cataclysmic scenarios are becoming fashionable. But they tend to over-feed themselves and ultimately make objective assessment even more difficult.
This is exactly when quantitative modelling of the sort practised at TAC Economics is of best help. Not that our models don't make mistakes, but they certainly ignore the herd and excessive psychological swings.
So, what do the models tell us for 2016? Four key messages emerge, all of them more positive than what most observers contemplate today:
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