Goodwill crucial in the long road to Britain's exit from the EU

Britain's exit from the European Union (EU) will require not just a single deal, but at least six interlocking sets of negotiations. If the British government wants the talks to run smoothly, it will need to earn the goodwill, not only of the countries in the EU, but also of those in the World Trade Organization.

The Brexit negotiations will take much longer and be far more complicated than many British politicians realise. One set of talks will cover Britain's legal separation from the EU, and the second, a free-trade agreement (FTA) with the EU. The third will be for interim cover for the UK between its departure from the EU and the entry into force of the FTA, and the fourth step will be accession to full membership of the WTO. The fifth will cover new FTAs to replace those that currently link the EU to 53 other countries, and the sixth, co-operation on foreign, defence and security policies.

The first deal, the divorce settlement prescribed by Article 50 of the EU treaty, will divide up the properties, institutions and pension rights, and deal with budget payments. It will also cover the rights of UK citizens in the EU and vice versa. The treaty sets out a two-year negotiation period, extendable by unanimity. The 27 want Britain out before the June 2019 European elections, and before talks on the EU's next seven-year budget cycle (the current cycle ends in 2020), so they will not extend the two years.