Nafta's future in doubt - no doubt about that

THE fourth round of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) negotiations was unexpectedly extended on Sunday, until the middle of this week, with growing signs that the deal may collapse in the coming weeks. While most parties are keen to see a new, modernised treaty emerge, political risks are growing, adding to angst about the future of international trade under the Trump presidency.

Speaking one day before his decision to torpedo the Iran nuclear agreement, US President Donald Trump said Thursday that "if we can't make a deal, it'll be terminated and that will be fine ... So we'll see what happens ... I've been opposed to Nafta for a long time, in terms of the fairness." While his rhetoric is partly aimed at turning the screw on Canada and Mexico in negotiations, he is now genuinely entertaining the prospect that the agreement could collapse in the coming months.

One of his first acts in the White House was to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with countries in Asia-Pacific and the Americas - including Australia, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. Meanwhile, negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have not resumed in any meaningful way with the current 28-member EU since the Obama administration ended.